UK Gambling Commission Analysis Links Illegal Transactions to Sustained Licensed Activity

The UK Gambling Commission released findings from an extensive review of anonymised open banking records covering 38,000 individuals between July 2018 and July 2026, and those records revealed that 91 percent of people who made repeated payments to suspected illegal gambling sites maintained their activity with licensed operators without any substantial reduction after initial contact with the illegal platforms. Researchers applied an algorithm developed by Yaspa in collaboration with Warwick Business School to isolate 3,426 illegal transactions connected to 179 individuals, while cross-referencing YouGov survey responses to build a clearer picture of behavioral patterns across both licensed and unlicensed channels.

Data Collection and Methodology

Analysts drew on open banking feeds that captured payment flows directly from bank accounts, which allowed the team to flag transactions matching known indicators of illegal site activity such as specific merchant descriptors and rapid transfer patterns, and this approach produced a focused sample without requiring direct access to personal identifiers. The study combined these transaction records with self-reported PGSI scores from YouGov panels, revealing that 45 percent of individuals who engaged with illegal sites scored 8 or higher on the problem gambling severity index compared with 6 percent among those who used only licensed operators. Observers note that the overlap suggests many users treat illegal sites as supplements rather than replacements, since licensed spending levels showed no measurable decline following the first illegal transactions.

Key Findings on Player Behavior

Figures indicate that the 179 individuals identified through illegal transaction markers continued placing bets and deposits with regulated companies at rates comparable to their pre-illegal activity, which points to parallel usage rather than migration away from licensed markets. Data shows higher problem gambling prevalence within the illegal-user group, yet the absence of any drop in licensed volumes implies that affordability pressures or regulatory limits on one side do not automatically redirect spend elsewhere. Experts have observed similar patterns in earlier smaller-scale reviews, although this dataset offers greater granularity because it spans eight years and incorporates verified bank-level detail instead of survey responses alone.

Context Within Industry Developments

The release arrives as the sector absorbs recent tax increases on gambling operators, and those fiscal changes have prompted discussions about revenue leakage to unregulated platforms. The Commission’s analysis does not quantify the overall size of the illegal market but demonstrates that participants in suspected illegal activity frequently remain active customers of licensed firms, which complicates assumptions that stricter rules or higher taxes alone drive players offshore. In November 2026, industry participants continue to monitor these trends while preparing submissions for upcoming affordability consultations, and the open banking dataset provides one of the first large-scale empirical anchors for those conversations.

Implications for Regulatory Oversight

Regulators can use the transaction-level insights to refine detection algorithms and to target enforcement resources more precisely, since the study isolates a small but distinct cohort whose payment behavior diverges from the broader population. The higher PGSI scores among illegal-site users suggest that problem-gambling interventions may need to account for multi-channel engagement rather than focusing solely on licensed environments. Stakeholders reviewing the report note that the 91 percent continuation rate challenges narratives of complete substitution, although the data remain limited to individuals who consented to open banking sharing and may not represent all market segments.

Conclusion

The UK Gambling Commission’s examination of open banking records supplies concrete evidence that repeated engagement with suspected illegal sites coexists with ongoing licensed play for the vast majority of identified users, while also documenting elevated problem gambling indicators within that group. Further analysis of payment flows and self-reported measures offers regulators and researchers a foundation for tracking behavioral shifts as tax and regulatory frameworks evolve through late 2026 and beyond.